I don't think anyone knows what is going on because they are unable to get close enough to see what is happening. It reminds me (not the seriousness or loss of human life) of the BP spill, having to use different equipment and not being able to see what is going on "hands on" with it, it has to be hard to predict. I can understand all of the frustration that the people over there are having, but I think any leader of a country in a crisis like this can say we don't know better run for the hills.
My prayers go out to all of those. It was horrible to watch those images on television. I am a night owl and was scrolling through the tv that night when they were showing it live as it happened and just seeing the cars on the road as this wave of "muck" was coming after them was heart wrenching.